NFL playoff picture: Chiefs eliminated for first time in Patrick Mahomes era

Published on 14 Dec at 9:57 pm

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks during a full slate of Week 15 games, with the Kansas City Chiefs seeing their playoff hopes go down the drain after a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury late in the game, crushing Kansas City’s last gasp at a comeback. It marks the Chiefs’ first time missing the playoffs since 2014, three years before Mahomes was drafted.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (11-2): Up next — vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 4:25 ET
The Broncos can clinch a playoff berth with one of these scenarios:

• Victory over Packers
• Tie with Packers AND Colts loss or tie vs. Seahawks

Notable odds: The Broncos are a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99%, per NFL.com. The Athletic’s playoff scenario generator gives them an 87% shot at winning the AFC West.

2. New England Patriots (11-3): Up next — at Baltimore Ravens, Dec. 21, 8:20 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Patriots squandered their chance to clinch the AFC East title with a loss to the Bills, but they still have 76% odds to win the division, per The Athletic.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4): Up next — At Denver Broncos, Dec. 21, 4:05 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South, and are 56% likely to win the division, per The Athletic.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6): Up next — vs. Miami Dolphins, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Steelers lead the AFC North. Their odds of clinching a playoff berth are at about 70%, per The Athletic.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4): Up next — at Dallas Cowboys, Dec. 21, 1 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Chargers have a 90% shot at making the playoffs, via NFL.com, but they are still very much a long shot to catch the Broncos for the division title.

6. Buffalo Bills (10-4): Up next — At Cleveland Browns, Dec. 21, 1 p.m. ET.

Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are still slim (25% according to The Athletic), the Bills are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

7. Houston Texans (9-5): Up next — vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Dec. 21, 4:25 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Texans’ odds to make the playoffs are 97%, per The Athletic.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5): Up next — At Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: The Colts have just a 28% shot at making the playoffs now, per NFL.com.

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7): Up next — vs. New England Patriots, Dec. 21, 8:20 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Ravens bumped their playoff odds to 42% with a much-needed win over the Bengals, according to The Athletic.

NFC

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3): Up next — vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday, 4:25 ET
The Rams can clinch a playoff berth with this scenario:

Notable odds: The Rams are essentially a lock to make the playoffs (97% odds on NFL.com), but they are still in a very tight race with the Seahawks and 49ers in the NFC West. The No. 1 seed isn’t a lock by any means but the Rams are the favorites, per The Athletic’s playoff odds, at 48%.

2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1): Up next — At Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: The Packers, who entered Sunday’s game with 58% odds at The Athletic, are now massive favorites to win the NFC North at nearly 70%.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5): Up next — At Washington Commanders, Dec. 20, 5 p.m. ET
Notable odds: After crushing the Raiders to end a three-game losing skid, the Eagles have 95% odds to make the playoffs, via The Athletic. The top seed, however, is almost certainly out of reach.

4. Carolina Panthers (7-6): Up next — At New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Panthers have a 42% chance to both make the playoffs, per NFL.com.

5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3): Up next — vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: Though almost a lock to make the playoffs (The Athletic and NFL.com have them with at least 97%) the Seahawks still aren’t the favorite to win the NFC West.

6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Up next — vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 4:25 ET
Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 95%, per The Athletic.

7. Chicago Bears (10-4): Up next — vs. Green Bay Packers, Dec. 20, 8:30 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Bears have a 78% shot of making the playoffs, per The Athletic. They have a 34% shot at walking away with the NFC North crown, with next week’s big game against the Packers looming.

Still in the NFC picture

8. Detroit Lions (8-5): Up next — At Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Notable odds: 51% to make the playoffs, per NFL.com. They have only a 6% chance to win the NFC North, per The Athletic.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7): Up next — at Carolina Panthers, Dec. 21 at 1 p.m. ET
Notable odds: The Buccaneers fell behind the Panthers in the NFC South standings on Thursday and have a 54% shot at making the playoffs, per NFL.com. A pair of games against the Panthers over the next month will be critical.

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1): Up next — vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Notable odds: 11% to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic and NFL.com.